Back in first: Phillies edge Marlins to grab top spot in NL East
Baseball Betting Lines
09/07/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Placido Polanco's eighth-inning two-out RBI single was the difference, as Philadelphia nipped Florida, 8-7, in the third installment of a four-game series.
The victory, coupled with Atlanta's loss at Pittsburgh, lofted the two-time defending NL champs into first place in the NL East by a half-game over the Braves. The Phillies hadn't seen the top of the division since May 30.
Raul Ibanez finished 3-for-4 with a homer and drove in three runs, while Shane Victorino and Ryan Howard also added solo shots for the Phillies, who have taken seven of their last nine overall.
Ryan Madson (5-2) allowed Florida's tying run to score in the top of the eighth, but picked up the win by getting the final four outs.
Logan Morrison doubled twice and knocked in a run for the Marlins, who have dropped two in a row since taking the opener of a day-night doubleheader on Monday. Mike Stanton finished 2-for-4 with a solo shot in defeat.
Jose Veras (2-2) was charged with the loss after allowing the game-winning hit.
In the eighth, Stanton's solo homer off Jose Contreras made it 7-5, then Brad Davis doubled with one out. With two outs, Emilio Bonifacio singled, and Davis scored on a Jayson Werth throwing error, which sent Bonifacio to second. J.C. Romero came in only to balk Bonifacio to third, then walked Morrison, paving the way for Madson. The lanky right-hander uncorked a wild pitch to score Bonifacio with the tying run before fanning Hanley Ramirez.
Veras gave up a two-out single to Victorino, who stole second before coming in when Polanco punched a hit through the right side. Chase Utley walked and Howard barely missed a three-run shot that was caught in front of the center- field wall, but the Phils snagged a one-run edge, 8-7.
Madson fanned Dan Uggla swinging and got Gaby Sanchez on a flyout to left before walking Stanton. Wes Helms then went down swinging on a high and outside 1-2 fastball to end the game.
The Phils broke through in the second, as Howard doubled and scored on a Jimmy Rollins base hit.
Florida came back with two in the third as Bonifacio singled and went to second on Blanton's error on a Morrison grounder. After a groundout moved up both runners, Uggla plated one with a grounder to first and Sanchez added an RBI single.
The Fish tacked on one more in the fourth as Cameron Maybin started with a triple and scored on a Davis groundout.
Ibanez reached the seats in left-center with one out in the home half, then the home team picked up three in the fifth to move ahead 5-3 on a Victorino leadoff homer, a two-out solo shot from Howard and an RBI hit by Ibanez.
Florida trimmed its deficit to 5-4 in the seventh. Bonifacio walked with one out then Morrison drove him in with a double off Antonio Bastardo. Morrison advanced to third on a wild throw home, but Chad Durbin cleaned up the mess by getting Ramirez on a foul out and Sanchez on a flyout.
Polanco singled to start the home half, moved to second on a passed ball, reached third on a groundout and scored after an intentional walk to Howard on a Rollins sac fly. Ibanez followed with an RBI triple, and the home team had what appeared to be a safe 7-4 edge.
Game Notes
Philadelphia has won nine of 14 from Florida this season and evened their record against the Marlins at home to 4-4...Late Monday, the Phillies recalled outfielder John Mayberry, Jr. from Triple-A Lehigh Valley...The Phils also scratched outfielder Domonic Brown with a quadriceps injury...Bonifacio ended with three hits and scored three runs...Polanco had three hits, and Howard crossed the plate three times...Philly starter Joe Blanton allowed six hits and four runs over 6 1/3 innings, and Florida hurler Chris Volstad yielded five runs and nine hits over five full frames.
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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?
The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.
While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.
For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.
1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.
2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.
How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.
Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.
Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.
How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).
Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.
Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your bet on college football needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
College Football Betting Tips From a Pro
While the NFL is the sport wagered on the heaviest, college football betting lines has become more and more popular as people realize it’s a game that can be beat. The NCAA football season gets longer each year with the addition of numerous bowl games and with that comes more opportunities for more money in your pocket, if handled correctly.
Betting on college football is not the same as with the NFL, so make sure you separate the two. Because of the vast number of teams, the parity between college football programs is slight and thus, you are going to see some high numbers in the NCAA. Teams favored by more than 40 points are not uncommon especially early in the season when teams playing their non-conference schedules.
The best advice when trying to tackle these enormous spreads and is to just stay away. A team that is favored by 40 points is favored by that many for a reason while teams getting 40 points are bad enough that they shouldn’t be touched. Set yourself a spread limit. Getting rid of these games will cut down on the number of contests that you need to handicap while staying away from backdoor or front-door covers.
What is a backdoor and front-door cover you ask? A backdoor cover is a team that is getting beat by more than the spread, but scores late to get within that number thus covering the spread. A front-door cover is just the opposite where the favorite scores late and covers the number they are favored by.
These front-door and backdoor covers are common when second and third string players enter games in college football and it can be the worst nightmare for some bettors. These players can also be your best friend, but ask any bettor and he will give you more instances on losing in this situation than winning. It just seems to work out that way even though everything evens out in the end.
College football betting has some of the softest lines of any sport and it’s being able to find these lines that will make you a successful college football handicapper. The NFL and NBA have the tightest lines around and while those sports can be beat by looking at situations and systems, college football doesn’t quite work that way. It’s much more manual, but when done correctly, it’s much more gratifying as well.
Getting into the nuts and bolts of college football means looking at the many stats in order to beat the number. As opposed to pro football, college football is less dependent on situations and angles and more on certain statistics. Rushing offense and defense, pass efficiency offense and defense and turnover margins are huge. These are vital in the NFL, but even more so when it comes to college football.
Being able to run the ball in college football has always been a key factor in the overall success of a team. The same adage also goes for teams who have the ability to stop the run. Putting these two factors together can produce some positive results in a team’s record both straight up and against the spread. These numbers show huge differences in teams and the spread may not take those into effect, which is where the value comes into play.
Passing yardage numbers both for and against can be a misinterpreted statistic. However, pass efficiency has always been one of the best ways to look at a teams’ passing game ability both offensively and defensively. But is it really a true indication of how they perform? I wouldn’t say so since they are raw passing numbers with nothing else taken into consideration.
I use pass efficiency ratings when doing my handicapping but I adjust my numbers based on a number of factors including power ratings, strength of schedules, personnel and injuries. This gives a much better picture of a team’s ability to pass effectively and also being able to defend the pass. Tweaking pass efficiency stats instead of raw passing yards is the key.
Turnovers are the single most frustrating, and at times the most gratifying, aspect of a college football lines, mostly because they are so unpredictable. They are part of the game and most of the time nothing can be done to control them. However, turnovers are contagious and they can carry over from game to game and season to season.
It’s important to know how to forecast these unforeseen events and how to use them to your advantage. You can find ways to give yourself an edge by looking at past histories of teams and coaches and how they have fared in turnover wars in the past. Instead of turnovers hurting you at the wrong times, find ways to use them to your advantage.
As you can see, college football handicapping is very labor intensive and isn’t just based on where teams are ranked in the AP and coaches polls. Experience, coaching and match-ups are all important since unlike the NFL, college teams turn over much more often with new personnel at most positions every single year. Keeping current on this information is vital.
Betting NCAA football can be lucrative if done correctly, but more importantly, it’s just plain enjoyable because it can be beat. College football is one of the best sports to watch with some of the best rivalries taking place in all of sports. The only downfall is that a championship isn’t decided on the field but on a computer-based system that is the Bowl Championship Series. That will change someday and we will all be better off for it.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your NCAA college football betting needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.