Duensing set for first start of season as Twins battle Orioles
Baseball Betting Lines
07/23/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) -- Brian Duensing will have a tough act to follow when the Minnesota Twins pitcher makes his first start of the season in tonight's clash with the Baltimore Orioles from Camden Yards.
Minnesota took the opener of this four-game series behind a sensational performance from Carl Pavano on Thursday, with the veteran right-hander going the distance on a five-hitter to lead his team to a 5-0 triumph.
Pavano (12-6) struck out four and walked just one in posting his seventh consecutive winning decision, and needed only 102 pitches to record his fourth complete game in seven starts.
"I set out this offseason with personal goals," said Pavano, whose 12 wins are just one shy of the New York Yankees' CC Sabathia for the American League lead. "I wanted to go deeper into games and it feels better than good."
Delmon Young continued a recent tear of his own for Minnesota, collecting two hits in three at-bats and staking Pavano to a quick 3-0 lead with a bases- clearing double in the first inning. The former No. 1 overall pick is now hitting .452 (14-for-31) with 12 RBI in eight games since the All-Star break.
Michael Cuddyer added a solo homer in the victory, the Twins' fifth in their last seven tries. Minnesota moved within two games of idle Chicago for first place in the AL Central standings.
Duensing will attempt to get his club a little closer to the top spot when he toes the rubber tonight. The former University of Nebraska standout has been brilliant pitching out of the bullpen this season, compiling a 3-1 record with a stellar 1.67 earned run average over 39 appearances, which prompted manager Ron Gardenhire to tab the left-hander to replace an ineffective Nick Blackburn in the Minnesota rotation.
The 27-year-old Duensing did make nine regular-season starts as a rookie in 2009 and also took the ball for the Twins in their 7-2 loss to the Yankees in Game 1 of last year's AL Division Series. He pitched very well in a starting role, producing an impressive 5-1 record and a 2.73 ERA in those nine outings.
Duensing stretched out for tonight's assignment by throwing four innings in relief of Blackburn against the White Sox last Sunday, and picked up the win in the Twins' 7-6 come-from-behind verdict after yielding just one run.
Blackburn has registered a poor 6.53 ERA in 18 starts and was demoted to the bullpen after being reached for five runs in five innings in Sunday's test. It was the fifth time in the righty's last six games in which he allowed five runs or more.
Jeremy Guthrie, the scheduled starter for Baltimore this evening, is mired in a frustrating slump as well at the moment. The right-hander comes in having dropped six consecutive decisions since his last victory, a May 25 besting of Oakland, and is a woeful 3-10 with 4.58 ERA overall in a disappointing 2010 campaign.
Guthrie was sharp in his latest effort, though, limiting Toronto to one run while striking out six batters over 6 2/3 innings this past Saturday at Camden Yards. He still wound up with a no-decision to extend his winless streak to nine straight starts.
One of Guthrie's three wins of 2010 did come against the Twins, however, with the former Cleveland Indians No. 1 pick permitting three runs in 6 2/3 innings during a May 8 encounter in Minneapolis. He's 2-0 with a 3.16 ERA through five career matchups with Minnesota, three of which have been starts.
Baltimore owns the majors' worst record at 30-65 and has dropped six of seven to begin the second half following last night's defeat. Kevin Millwood (2-9), making his first start in more than two weeks, took the loss on Thursday after surrendering five runs in a 6 1/3-inning stint.
Minnesota has won three of five meetings with Baltimore so far this season, but had lost in three straight visits to Camden Yards prior to prevailing last night.
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Betting the NFL preseason
Rule No. 1 in the gamblers' handbook states, "Avoid sports betting on meaningless games."
When you're drowning in a sea of baseball monotony, however, things change. Even a hint of pro football betting can persuade the most disciplined bettor to break a few rules.
The NFL preseason is around the corner, with a tempting Hall of Fame match kicking off on Sunday. But bettors must stay vigilant. Wagering on NFL exhibition games is an entirely different beast than the regular season. Most fans don't recognize the players on the field because starters get as much action in August as Warcraft fans get on Prom night.
The only certainty about the NFL this time of year is uncertainty – and yet there are some who say betting in August can be a gold mine.
“I actually feel the NFL preseason presents solid profit opportunities for sharp bettors and handicappers,” Sports Expert Steve Merril explains. “My experience has been that the sportsbooks fear the preseason, which is evident by lower limits and massive moves.”
The line moves are attributed to the limited knowledge available regarding playing-time distribution. One team’s top unit out on the field for one more series has an impact on the pointspread. Setting lines in the preseason often is a shot in the dark.
“We base the betting lines mostly on public perception,” Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas, says. “It’s very tough to predict, almost a guessing game.”
The preseason is all about figuring out who’s in and for how long.
“It becomes a race between bettors and oddsmakers to find out how long the quarterbacks are going to stay in,” Korner admits. “If a sharp gets the information first, he could exploit an early line. I’m a full believer in moving the line in the preseason if the books find out something late in the week.”
Determining what each team’s motive is can help bettors handicap. To do this you must pay close attention to the philosophies head coaches employ in exhibition play.
“You need to know what a coach is trying to accomplish,” says Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “Sometimes a new coach will want to instill a winning attitude. Others just want to make sure their starters don’t get hurt."
So how do you distinguish who’s playing scared and who’s playing for keeps?
“Head coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to implement a winning attitude usually try harder to win in the preseason,” Merril says.
Cleveland Browns head coach Romeo Crennel fits this criteria. He’s entering his third season as the sideline boss and has yet to lead the Browns to more than six wins.
Cleveland is an enticing bet as well because of the unresolved quarterback situation. General manager Phil Savage sacrificed the Browns’ first-round pick in next year’s draft for Brady Quinn, but the former Notre Dame quarterback hasn’t signed or reported to training camp yet.
Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson split time at QB last season and it looks like either player (or even Quinn) could be the opening-day starter.
“If a team has quarterback depth and the pecking order hasn’t been decided, it’s a big advantage,” Leonard says.
Even in the third week of the preseason when starters generally play the most, the final outcome of the game is in the hands of fringe players. A team's talent, all the way down to the last man on the roster, is something to consider.
The New England Patriots have long been considered one of the deeper teams in the NFL and coach Bill Belichick has said in the past he’s unafraid of stars getting hurt in games with nothing on the line. He shocked his colleagues in 2003 by playing some of his starters on special teams in the preseason.
“We want to have the team ready to play a tough, physical game and preparation has to go into that and I imagine a certain amount of injuries go with it,” Belichick told the Providence Journal in August 2003.
Bettors can only hope to find more teams that share the Pats' business-like approach to the preseason (New England is 17-9-3 against the spread since 2000) and take advantage of teams who detest the exhibition schedule.
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