Red Sox blow lead, but top Mariners in 13 innings
Baseball Betting Lines
07/23/2010 - Seattle, WA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Eric Patterson's two-run double in the 13th inning lifted the Red Sox to a wild 8-6 win over the Seattle Mariners to open a four-game series.
Boston's John Lackey came within four outs of a no-hitter, but the Mariners eventually rallied for five runs in the ninth to force extra innings.
Bill Hall and J.D. Drew each hit two-run homers, while Marco Scutaro added a solo shot as the Red Sox snapped a two-game skid.
Seattle loaded the bases with one out in the 12th inning, but came up empty as Jose Lopez fouled out to first and Milton Bradley popped out to former Mariner Adrian Beltre at third.
Kevin Youkilis led off the 13th with an infield single. Beltre nearly homered in the next at-bat, but yanked the ball barely foul down the left field line. He ended up popping out. Drew flied out to left, but Mike Cameron walked and Patterson doubled to the gap in left-center off Garrett Olson (0-3) to provide the Red Sox with the lead.
"Runner in scoring position, you're just trying to get a base hit, you're not trying to do too much," Patterson said. "(Olson) threw me a couple breaking balls. I was just able to stay on the last one and found some grass in the outfield."
Hideki Okajima (3-2) pitched a pair of innings for the win and Ramon Ramirez recorded his second save.
Franklin Gutierrez, the hero in a 2-1, 11-inning win over the White Sox on Wednesday, belted a two-run homer in the ninth inning off Manny Delcarmen, but the Mariners lost for the seventh time in nine contests.
Ryan Rowland-Smith permitted eight hits and five runs over six innings in the start for the Mariners.
Lackey gave up two hits, an unearned run, walked one and fanned six batters. He retired 16 batters in a row before Josh Bard looped a base hit to right- center field to break up the no-hit bid. Jack Wilson singled to right field, but Ichiro Suzuki lined out to end the inning, keeping Boston up 6-1.
"You think about (the no-hitter) a little bit, you obviously know it's going on, but it's not something that you're really focused on, you just want to win the game." Lackey said. "We won the game, that makes things a lot better for sure, but it's definitely one of the weirdest no-decisions that I've had."
Delcarmen had trouble closing out the game in the ninth, an inning in which the Red Sox committed a pair of errors. Chone Figgins singled to center and Gutierrez homered to left. Lopez walked, and Bradley then grounded a ball up the middle off of Scutaro's glove to put two runners on base.
Jonathan Papelbon entered, but couldn't stop the bleeding. He fanned Justin Smoak, but Casey Kotchman stroked an RBI double down the right field line. Bard walked to load the bases and Wilson grounded a ball up the middle that should have turned into a game-ending double-play. Scutaro flipped to Hall for the out at second, but the throw to first got by Youkilis, allowing two runs to score. Suzuki was intentionally walked, but Figgins was caught looking at a called third strike to send the game into extra innings.
"It comes down to that 12th inning, bases loaded, one out, meat of the order up, and we don't get it done," Mariners manager Don Wakamatsu said. "But, to be down facing Delcarmen, Papelbon and to score five runs, that shows a lot of character."
Suzuki crashed into the wall in right field to rob David Ortiz of a home run in the first inning.
Seattle produced a run in the bottom portion. Bradley walked, stole second and went to third on Smoak's groundout. With two down, Bradley scored on a passed ball by Kevin Cash.
Cameron doubled leading off the third and Hall followed with a homer to left field. Scutaro singled with one out, went to second on a wild pitch and came home on a Ortiz two-out base hit to right.
After hitting Wilson with a pitch to open the third, Lackey retired the ensuing 16 batters. Meanwhile, Boston added to its lead in the sixth as Drew homered to right field with Beltre on base.
Scutaro homered to left off Brian Sweeney with one out in the seventh for a 6-1 margin.
Game Notes
Earlier Thursday, the Mariners traded minor league infielder Jack Hannahan to the Red Sox for a player to be named later or cash considerations...Prior to Thursday, the Mariners had never scored five or more runs in the ninth inning to tie or win a game...It was the fourth blown save of the year for Papelbon...Beltre, who signed with the Red Sox in the offseason after spending five years in Seattle, went 1-for-6...Youkilis had three hits.
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How to bet pro football
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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